Whoever wins next year’s elections the massive boom in Swedish private healthcare is likely to roll on, says Mikael Persson, head of markets at care group Attendo. He reckons that on a rolling 12 month basis Swedish local authorities have outsourced Skr 3bn worth of contracts for the running of care homes, disabled care and domiciliary care, of which some Skr2.5bn are brand new. But other areas are also booming – patient choice has led to a growth in private provision and many local authorities are buying beds from private operators.

Overall, Persson puts the care market for older people and disabled financed by local authiorities at some SKR135bn, of which a total of some 15% has moved into the private sector so far through outsourcing, patient provision and the buying of beds. He expects that to rise to 18-19% within two years.

He believes that the political argument has been won. Elections in October 2010 are likely to stymie the market in the first nine months of 2010, but he says that social democrat councils have in fact done a lot of outsourcing and he can not see that a social democrat government, if elected, could reverse the trend. “A recent study showed very little hostility to outsourcing from patients and employees. We know that when elderly people are offered a choice of care provider they tend to opt for a private provider.”

He also claims that Attendo, backed by private equity group IK Invest, is now winning more contracts than its main rival Carema, part of the 3i backed Ambea group. He estimates that Attendo is winning roughly 30% of all contracts, slightly more than Carema. He says Norlandia, the largest Norwegian group, is making inroads and is likely to also become a major player.