Healthcare tourism is strongly affected, negatively and positively, by what I call the "dead cyclist" syndrome.

So far, 13 cyclists have died this year on over 130m journeys - a one in ten million chance. But the London free papers lovingly publish a plethora of stories for each death - the eye witness account, the parental response, the inquest, whether criminal charges are to be pressed. etc, etc. Deaths are described in gory detail. The net result is that the vast majority of Londoners read about each death half a dozen times on their commute and regard cycling as very dangerous. But the papers almost never cover any pedestrian or motorist deaths (230 in 2006).

The same syndrome is growing parts of the healthcare tourism market and shrinking others.

In the West it only takes a few horror stories in tabloids of face lifts gone wrong, teeth misplaced or criminal negligence leading to death or serious handicap to put consumers right off the idea of traveling to Hungary or India. 

But in the Middle East and East and Central Europe the dead cyclist syndrome is working massively in favour of healthcare tourism. The press in these countries, as it becomes increasingly free, is starting to feature the endemic failures in local healthcare systems. Recently, this has occurred many times over in Romania, for instance, where several babies were killed when faulty electronics led to a fire.

That, plus the growing wealth of the new rich will grow the East-West market dramatically. In a separate article, we estimate this market for London, Munich and Switzerland at well over €1bn a year.

As for me? I've cycled for 30 years and have no intention of stopping now.