This weekend I met up with some nutters and went sea swimming off Brighton. Normally I stay in for 3-4 minutes in late February. But these guys (well, mainly women, actually) stayed in for 15. I joined them and emerged prawn pink from frolicking in the waves.

Investing in healthcare in Eastern Europe calls for a similar attitude.

You are either up for the extra layer of risk or you aren’t. At a certain level, you have to take the big, long-term view and just jump in. I cross questioned Matthew Strassberg at Mid Europa as to why he has invested in lab group Diagnostyka. What did he think of the reform path in Poland, would the government win re-election and, if it did, would it enact healthcare reform? Short pause. “I’ve stopped worrying about stuff like that. Reform in Eastern Europe is often promised and not delivered. You just have to take the view that demographically the sector has to expand at some stage.”

He doesn’t know when the Polish government will finally end the daft situation that means doctors have to pay for tests out of their fees for seeing patients. But he knows it will happen eventually.

Ultimately in these countries you have to take a position founded on the basics. You either jump in or you don’t.